Toronto's Buyer's Market: What to Expect in 2026
GTA average price at $1,006,735 with 4.6 months of inventory — a balanced-to-buyer market.
Market Snapshot: January/February 2026
Latest TRREB Data (Jan/Early Feb 2026)
Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB)
Prices Down 5.7% Year-Over-Year
The GTA average price sits at $1,006,735, continuing the gradual decline from 2024. The benchmark price has fallen 6.3% year-over-year to $942,300, signaling broader softening across all property types.
Buyer Advantage: With the SNLR (Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio) at 70%, buyers have more choice and less competition than during the 2021-2022 boom.
Balanced-to-Buyer Market Conditions
With 4.6 months of supply (balanced markets typically range from 3-5 months), the GTA sits firmly in balanced-to-buyer territory. Properties are taking an average of 65 days to sell — up from 56 days a year ago.
Market Reality: 5,299 new listings vs. 3,697 sales means buyers have more options and more time to make decisions.
Affordability Improving
Lower prices combined with stabilizing mortgage rates have improved affordability compared to 2024. TRREB reports this sets the foundation for potential recovery when consumer confidence improves.
Opportunity: Buyers who have been priced out for years now have a window to enter the market with less competition.
What's Driving the Slowdown?
Market Sentiment is the #1 Factor
Widespread uncertainty is the biggest factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Unlike previous corrections driven primarily by interest rates or regulatory changes, this slowdown is heavily psychological.
Key Sentiment Drivers:
- •Fear of "catching a falling knife" - will prices drop further?
- •Concerns about overpaying in an uncertain market
- •Media narratives of continued decline affecting buyer confidence
- •Wait-and-see approach becoming self-fulfilling
Economic Worries Outweigh Interest Rates
Concerns about jobs and the economy prevent buyers from entering the market. While interest rates have stabilized, broader economic anxiety dominates buyer psychology.
Economic Worries
- • Job security concerns
- • Inflation impact on budgets
- • Recession fears
- • Income uncertainty
Interest Rate Reality
- • Rates stabilizing
- • Less of a factor than 2022-2023
- • Buyers adjusting to new normal
- • Economic fears dominate
What to Expect: Spring 2026 and Beyond
A shift in consumer confidence is needed before a sustained market recovery can begin.
TRREB indicates that improved affordability at the end of 2025 lays the groundwork for potential recovery in 2026 — but it depends on economic confidence and job market stability. Several catalysts could trigger a sentiment shift:
What This Means for Buyers
Buyer Advantages
- Lower Prices: 5.7% below last year, improved affordability vs. 2024
- Less Competition: 70% SNLR means more choice, fewer bidding wars
- More Inventory: 4.6 months supply with rising new listings
- Time to Decide: 65 days average DOM — no rush pressure
Smart Buyer Strategies
- Don't Wait Forever: Timing the absolute bottom is impossible
- Focus on Value: Buy for your needs, not speculation
- Negotiate Hard: Sellers are motivated in this market
- Get Pre-Approved: Be ready to act when you find the right home
The Bottom Line for Buyers
2026 presents a generational buying opportunity in Toronto real estate. While uncertainty remains, buyers who act strategically can secure significant value in a low-competition environment. The key is balancing patience with readiness—don't rush, but don't wait for a "perfect" bottom that may never come.
What This Means for Sellers
Selling in a buyer's market requires strategic positioning and realistic expectations:
- 1.Price Aggressively: Overpricing guarantees extended days on market. Price competitively from day one to attract the limited pool of active buyers.
- 2.Present Perfectly: Professional photos, staging, and curb appeal are non-negotiable in a market with abundant choice.
- 3.Be Flexible: Offer incentives like covering closing costs, including appliances, or allowing flexible move-in dates.
- 4.Consider Timing: If you don't need to sell immediately, waiting for spring 2026 or a sentiment shift might yield better results.
Seller Reality Check
If you purchased at or near the 2022 peak, you may need to accept that your home's value has decreased. However, if you bought before 2020, you're likely still sitting on substantial gains despite the recent correction.
Expert Insight
"The 2026 Toronto market is defined by sentiment, not fundamentals. The area's long-term attractiveness—immigration, job market, global city status—remains intact. Buyers who can overcome the psychological barrier of uncertainty will look back at 2026 as a watershed moment."
— Market Analysis, December 2025
Key Takeaways
For Buyers: This is one of the best buying opportunities in over a decade. Less competition, lower prices, and negotiating power create optimal conditions.
For Sellers: Adjust expectations, price realistically, and present your home impeccably. Or consider waiting for market sentiment to improve.
Market Timing: Early 2026 will likely remain sluggish, but spring could bring renewed activity. No one can predict the exact bottom.